The headlines make it sound like the skilled worker shortage materialized out of thin air. When in fact, it’s been coming at us for a generation.

Make no mistake: the shortage is real. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects about 40,100 HVAC openings per year on average from 2024 to 2034, and about 44,000 openings per year for plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters over the same period. 

Those openings offer young people and career-changers a world of opportunities—but there need to be some major changes first. 

Let’s start with the numbers.

The demographics are simple. A large group of experienced tradespeople is getting closer to retirement, and there aren’t enough coming along to replace them. As the BLS notes, the projected openings in these fields will come mostly from workers leaving the labor force.

Unfortunately, that’s not the entire story. Over the years, the trades have suffered from a major perception problem.

The “dirty jobs” stigma.

Many parents—and more than a few high school guidance counselors—hear “the trades” and think “fallback plan.” Or worse, “dirty jobs.”

For about a generation now, the narrative has been four-year college first, everything else second. In reality, the picture is more balanced. Trades careers can pay well, offer clear advancement, and create real independence without incurring the same debt load as many college degrees. BLS lists median 2024 pay at $59,810 for HVAC mechanics and installers and $62,970 for plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters.

Clearly, no one is suggesting that every young person should go into the trades. It does, however, mean that skilled trades businesses have let other people define the story for far too long. 

If trades businesses want more young people to see this work as a first choice, they have to make that case more loudly and clearly. Not just in recruiting ads, but in how the work is talked about, taught, and experienced.

Some of the problem is self-inflicted.

There’s some grumbling about “kids these days,” but demographics aren’t the only cause. The sad fact is that some shops are hard to work for.

These shops run on outdated processes, weak training, chaotic scheduling, and the idea that frustration is just part of the job. They treat technicians like replaceable parts instead of skilled professionals. Then they act surprised when people leave; when they stop referring friends, or when they decide the trade is not for them.

Ironically, the same is true for many white-collar occupations. But when you drop a toxic workplace on top of a critical labor shortage, you’ll have even more trouble attracting new people.

What does the day-to-day experience offer?

In the end, what determines whether somebody stays in a trade often comes down to some basic questions.

Does the company offer training, or is it sink-or-swim for new recruits? 

Does it provide decent tools and complete information on each job?

Are schedules realistic, or does every day feel totally frantic?

Is there a path for advancement? (see also training)

The answer is not just “find more people.”

That’s oversimplifying. The smarter response starts with two questions.

First: how do we attract more people?

Second: how do we make better use of experienced people?

The first question is about outreach to young people. The trades need to concentrate on offering apprenticeships, improving the narrative, and strengthening their partnership with schools, parents and guidance counselors. 

The second question is about operations and stronger systems for experienced techs. Companies that offer better onboarding, consistent training, and flexible scheduling will have an advantage over those that don’t. And a company that respects technicians’ time and judgment will keep them longer than one that burns them out while blaming them for chaos caused by faulty processes.

Technology is part of the solution, but not the whole solution.

There are many ways that AI can help smooth and speed operations for accounting, dispatch, and customer service. By streamlining your workflow, your people can get more done with less stress.

But of course, AI can’t replace a pipe, install a heat pump, or wire a new office building. So technology can improve efficiency, but it’s not going to solve the worker shortage.

There is one other advantage, however: younger people embrace technology. They’ve grown up with it, and are attracted to jobs that incorporate it. They may not realize that smartphones and tablets have become standard issue for diagnosing problems and submitting reports. Nor might they realize just how sophisticated many of the systems are that they’d work on in the field. 

The young people who enter the trades now are discovering the marriage between hands-on work and technology. That’s an appeal that trades advocates should emphasize. 

The real starting point is how we value the work.

If the industry wants more people to enter and stay, the work has to be presented and treated as what it is: a skilled, demanding, valuable career.

That means better communication about the opportunity and more early-career support for beginners. For experienced techs, it means better systems and more respect inside the business. 

In other words, the solution goes beyond just recruiting harder. 

There’s really no mystery here.

The reasons for the shortage of skilled tradespeople are plain to see. It’s a mixture of demographics, perception, and the way the work is structured once someone gets in.

That’s a ray of hope. Because while demographic trends are hard to control, we can influence career paths, scheduling, training, and culture.

Those are levers. The owners who pull them well are the ones most likely to keep building strong teams, while everyone else keeps forwarding scary articles.

The Graphite Lab builds AI products for trades businesses that want to make each person on the team more effective. Helping to solve the labor shortage by helping good people do great work with a better-run business.